As a tee-up, the province already saw severe storms in the extreme southwest, with a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for several hours for the Windsor area before dropping around 7 p.m.
Thursday's storms are likely to be even stronger. Read below for an analysis of the system that is set to bring Thursday's storms.
South of the warm front on Thursday, surface temperatures will climb well into the teens and even low 20’s with southwesterly winds. This will help build the instability needed to fuel severe thunderstorms. North of the front, showers and easterly winds will keep temperatures stalled in the single digits.
If enough instability does build through the afternoon, the environment will favor the development of strong to severe storms on Thursday. Strong winds aloft will provide ample wind shear, and the vertical temperature profile supports powerful updrafts capable of producing lightning and even hail.
There will be the potential for isolated tornadoes on Thursday as well, particularly near the warm front where low level wind shear will be maximized. Any storms that show signs of rotation will need to be monitored closely for tornado potential.
Storms should diminish in intensity through the overnight hours on Thursday, as the system continues to shift east – giving way to clearing and more seasonal temperatures on Friday.